OPINION: A way-too-early talk about awards season

It’s been a bit of a strange year for movies.

First, it’s worth noting most of the strange production handlings of this year are recursive effects from last year’s labor disputes in Hollywood, where writers, production staff and actors struck in solidarity with each other against new waves of a changing film industry.

Streaming services and generative AI are changing how movies and television are being produced and distributed, with the creatives behind these projects rightfully desiring proper payment. There is no excuse for studios to be penny-pinching those behind their most successful properties.

Yet, this led to a five-month gap in film production which led to delay after delay, creating a bit of an understated release schedule. Most of this year’s films, especially now that we’re in award season, are being produced outside of the Hollywood system.

Take for instance this year’s front runner for Best Picture, “Anora,” a movie from one of my favorite directors Sean Baker. Produced independently and premiering all the way in May during the Cannes Film Festival, the movie became a surprise favorite for the Palme d’Or, eventually winning the festival’s top award.

“Emilia Perez,” a Spanish musical from French filmmaker Jacques Audiard about a drug cartel which also premiered at Cannes. It looks to be the lock for International Feature Film, but a release on Netflix might stunt one of the more high-concept films of the year.

Even those releasing under the studio system have a hard challenge ahead of them. The three that come to mind are “Wicked,” “Dune Part Two” and “Gladiator II.” Both “Dune” and “Gladiator” are not just sequels, but genre sequels of science fiction and historical fantasy, respectively. “Dune’s” additional struggle will be to remain relevant after a March release.

“Wicked” holds a challenge as a family-friendly musical, but with a current reported runtime of 160 minutes, and with the story being cut in two for next year, it’s hard to feel confident. Long runtimes continue with another frontrunner with post-WWII drama “The Brutalist” set to release in December with a 215 minute runtime.

This weekend will mark the release of papacy drama “Conclave,” which looks to be the somber period piece of the year, with a fascinating PG MPAA rating to boot. The last time a movie with a PG rating was nominated for Best Picture was in 2019 with “Little Women.”

Movies like Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” and RaMell Ross’ narrative feature debut “Nickel Boys” could round out the list, alongside my personal favorite movie of the year so far in “Sing Sing.”

So for recap, my nominees, as of Oct. 23, would be “Anora,” “Blitz,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Dune Part Two,” “Emilia Perez,” “Gladiator II,” “Nickel Boys,” “Sing Sing” and “Wicked.”

These are my, admittedly, very early predictions for this year’s nominees. There’s something strange about this list of nominees, and it took me quite a while to articulate it before it hit me.

The Toronto International Film Festival, whose awards typically give the first shine on the frontrunners for the Oscar race, gave their top prize to Mike Flanagan’s horror movie “The Life of Chuck,” which won’t release in theaters until next year.

It’s a strange win, especially for a horror movie in a film festival environment. The easiest explanation would be that the top films are so close in the race, an outlier like “Chuck” could pull off an upset.

Why does the race seem so close? It’s hard to really put into words from film festival previews and reactions, but suddenly, it hit me: these are a new generation of filmmakers.

Of course, you have filmmaking legends in Ridley Scott, Denis Villeneuve and McQueen, but other than that, none of these other directors have ever been nominated for Best Director. Additionally, “Nickel Boys,” “Sing Sing,” “The Brutalist,” and “Emilia Perez” would give more platformed introductions to Ross, Greg Kwedar, Brady Corbet and Audiard respectively.

It’s also one of the most diverse slate of nominees in recent memories, in both subject matter and in representation. “Emilia Perez” embraces trans themes and an ensemble of exceptionally talented actresses with Argentinian trans actress Karla Sofía Gascón in the lead.

A black woman in the lead for “Wicked” in Cynthia Erivo is exceptional for Hollywood, even if she’s painted green as Elphaba. “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing” both have mostly black casts on the screen. The two deal with injustices in American history and some unfortunately remaining today. McQueen in “Blitz” looks to give 1940s London the cultural and racial diversity which history always forgets about.

And perhaps the biggest celebration is in “Anora,” which looks to give Baker his largest platform yet as one of the few filmmakers to show empathy to sex workers across his body of work, adding “Anora” to a lineup of films alongside “Tangerine,” “The Florida Project” and “Red Rocket.”

After last year’s battle of Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” versus Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” this year undoubtedly would lose in a battle of star power. But, this year is one of the more zany, high-concept slate of movies in recent memories, and a glorious win for celebrating diversity in America’s culture. The starting gun has been fired.