Many believe Joe Biden is the safe candidate, the electable candidate. Not true!
Given the Electoral College, it’s possible no democratic candidate could beat Donald Trump. But of all the Democratic candidates, Joe Biden is the most likely to lose to Trump. If Democrats nominate Joe Biden, Trump will win re-election.
In the last 20 years, every time a party has nominated the “safe” candidate, the “electable” candidate, Democratic or Republican, that candidate has lost. Gore, Kerry, McCain, Romney, and Hillary Clinton were all promoted as “safe” and “electable.” Every one lost. In contrast, many people thought there was no way George W. Bush, Barack Obama or Donald Trump could win. Yet they did.
In 2020, Joe Biden is the “safe” candidate, the “electable” candidate. If someone voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and then voted for Trump in 2016, why would they vote Biden 2020? If Democrats nominate Joe Biden, Trump will be reelected.
The least fortunate among us, the poor, and those with less formal education than other demographics, know what they need and which candidate speaks for them. Those making under 50k a year tend to support Bernie Sanders. Younger voters support Bernie Sanders over Joe Biden by a 2-to-1 margin. Latinos back Sanders over Biden. Black Americans under-35 support Sanders over Biden. Young black and Latino voters’ enthusiasm for Bernie will win their parents and grandparents’ support for Sanders. Conversely, the older black Americans and Latinos who support Biden will have less success in convincing their children and grandchildren to vote for Biden.
In a recent Monmouth poll, more self-identified moderates under 50 support Sanders than Biden (23% to 20%). Of the remaining candidates, only Sanders can rebuild and expand on the Obama coalition.
In a general election, I predict more Warren supporters shifting to Sanders than Sanders’ supporters shifting to Warren. In 2016, an estimated 12% Sanders’ supporters voted for Trump in the general election. Many of these Trump voters feel that the Democratic party despises and dismisses them.
Bernie is the candidate whom a significant number of Trump voters would support. A Sanders’ nomination will also prevent an otherwise significant flight of votes from Democrat to Third-Parties. Bernie is the best chance to defeat Trump.